Don’t Bet the Farm on Refinancing: What Buyers in New York’s Capital Region Need to Know

Thinking about buying a home to refinance later? Read this first.

The idea sounds simple—don’t let today’s higher mortgage rates stop you from buying the home you love, because someday you can refinance to something lower.

Sounds reassuring, right? Here's the catch: that advice can be risky, especially for first-time and younger buyers who are counting too heavily on refinancing as a safety net. 

Why Refinancing Isn’t a Sure Thing

Many buyers and even homeowners aren’t clear on how mortgage refinance works. A recent Truework Homebuyer Report found that nearly two-thirds of Gen Z and millennial buyers said refinancing is important to their financial future. That’s double the share of baby boomers who said the same. In other words, younger buyers are leaning hard on the idea that they’ll be able to refinance down the road.

Will mortgage rates go down? Here’s the reality—mortgage experts warn there’s no guarantee. Forecasts show mortgage rates hovering in the 6%–7% range for the next couple of years, not dropping back to the rock-bottom 2%–3% we saw during 2020–2021. Those ultra-low rates were a “perfect storm” of unique economic conditions, and waiting for them to return could mean waiting forever.

What About the Fed’s Rate Cut?

You may have seen the headlines that the Federal Reserve recently lowered rates. While that’s an important economic shift, it doesn’t automatically mean mortgage rates will fall in the same way—or keep falling. Mortgage rates are influenced by many factors, including inflation, investor demand, and the broader economy. So while the Fed’s actions can create downward pressure, it’s not a guarantee of significantly lower mortgage rates in the near future.

And even if rates do dip, refinancing depends on more than just the market:

• Your credit has to remain strong

• Your income must still qualify

• Your home value needs to hold steady

Life happens—jobs change, income shifts, and sometimes property values don’t move the way we expect. Assuming you’ll be able to refinance simply because you have a mortgage today can set you up for disappointment. You have to analyze - when it comes to mortgage refinance, is it worth it?

The Real Costs to Keep in Mind

Many homeowners forget that refinancing isn’t free. Just like your original loan, there are closing costs associated with refinancing. Closing costs mean it usually only makes sense if you can lower your rate by enough. Otherwise, you may not save enough to offset the expense.

Some buyers are also turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or temporary buydowns to ease payments in the short term. But those carry their own risks—if rates don’t fall, payments can climb sharply when the initial term ends. 

A Better Way to Buy

So, what’s a more sound approach? It all comes back to one golden rule: make sure you’re comfortable with your mortgage payment today—not just what you hope it could be tomorrow.

Here are some tips when buying a home to stay on solid ground:

• ✅ Know your real budget. What the bank says you qualify for and what you can comfortably afford may be two different numbers.

• ✅ Look beyond the mortgage. Factor in property taxes, utilities, insurance, HOA fees, and ongoing repairs.

• ✅ Talk to a lender early. Online calculators are a start, but a local lender can help you get a clear, personalized picture of your finances.

• ✅ Build a cushion. Moving costs, unexpected repairs, or emergencies can sneak up on you—plan for them now.

  
  

Buying a home is exciting, but it’s also a long-term commitment. By focusing on what you can truly afford today, you won’t have to rely on a refinance “someday” that may never come.

Bottom Line

Refinancing can be a great bonus down the road, but it shouldn’t be the foundation of your homebuying plan. The smartest move is to purchase a home you can comfortably afford right now—and treat refinancing as a possible perk later.

And if you’re wondering how to start the home buying process in upstate NY, this approach matters even more. From Albany to Saratoga to Schenectady, inventory is tight and competition is strong—but opportunities are out there. With the right strategy (and the right local agent), you can find a home that fits your lifestyle and your budget today, without betting the farm on refinancing tomorrow.

👉 Looking to buy in Upstate NY? Let’s talk about the best options for you in today’s Capital Region market. Book your free consultation today.